APRIL 2017 MEETING
Mr. Tom Shepard, political consultant from Tom Shepard & Associates shared his unique perspective of the San Diego political landscape within San Diego County.
Mr. Shepard began by emphasizing the importance of individual participation in the electoral process at the grassroots level through clubs like the Torrey Pines Democratic Club. He said most of the top-level offices in the state are occupied by people who started their political careers at the local level on various boards and councils. Club interaction enables learning how government works and provides a training ground to develop skills to either enter politics or influence it.
Regarding the 49th Congressional District, Issa barely won during the last election and Shepard believes that both the Republican and Democratic national campaign committees will be pouring a lot of funding into their candidates to preserve of capture this seat. In addition to Doug Applegate, who narrowly lost to Issa last year, fellow-democrat Mike Levin of Orange County has begun aggressively campaigning for the seat. Shepard believes having two democratic candidates at this point is an overall good thing for the Democrats, providing they both stay focused on highlighting the failings of Issa, and not attack each other.
In the 50th District, is a Republican stronghold and would be expected to remain so. Added to this, Duncan Hunter has both his incumbency as well as his father’s reputation from his long years holding the same seat. However, Hunter, Jr., is the subject of a Department of Justice investigation and it appears that they have sufficient body of evidence to go to court. Shepard said that he has past experience with clients in similar situations. Once the defendant realizes that a trial is likely, there is only one thing they can do to possibly influence the outcome, and that is to resign, and typically sooner rather than later. He went on to say that based on what he is hearing, Hunter might resign so soon that there would be a special election this year. Although the 50th will likely remain a safe Republican district, in a special election all bets are off.
At the State Legislature level, there are very few competitive districts right now. Although there will be many running for reelection in San Diego County, in virtually all of them the incumbents are in “safe” districts.
Among the local elections in San Diego county, most incumbents are likely to to be reelected, and those who are timing out have endorsed people who are likely to win. There are two County Supervisor positions up for grabs because of term limits and both are showing signs of strong competition. The downtown district is being evacuated by Ron Roberts, and 5th district (north county down to Carlsbad) is being evacuated by Bill Horn. In both races, a number of well-known Democrats are expressing interest.
During the Q&A session, Mr Shepard commented that he has read that by 2018, the largest “party” in California will be those who register as No Party Preference, and he thinks this will influence the strategies of the traditional parties.
